Jakk Consultancy

August Third Week Middle East Finance Newsletter

Saudi Pile of US Treasuries at Six-Year Low in Shift to Risk, Lira Lifeline Became $124 Billion Problem That Haunts Turkey, Turkey Urges Banks to Help Rebalance Economy With Credit Pivot.

Saudi Pile of US Treasuries at Six-Year Low in Shift to Risk

Key Takeaways

  • Saudi Arabia is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and reallocating its oil wealth to riskier assets, reflecting a shift in investment strategy amid a growing backlash against the dominance of the US dollar.

  • The share of Saudi Arabia’s external wealth in risky assets has more than doubled since 2016, signaling a desire to diversify investments beyond the oil sector.

  • The Saudi sovereign wealth fund has increased its investments in US-traded stocks, including companies like Lucid and Alibaba, while China and other countries have been selling off US Treasuries.

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Lira Lifeline Became $124 Billion Problem That Haunts Turkey

Key Takeaways

  • Turkey’s government-backed savings program, designed to protect lira deposits from depreciation, has become too large and costly to unwind, posing a risk to the economy.

  • The program, known as KKM, now accounts for over a quarter of total deposits and is draining state coffers, hindering policymakers in finding a more conventional economic path.

  • The central bank’s recent steps to scale back the program signal the beginning of the end for FX-protected deposits, but without firm policy rate hikes and support for the lira, changing savers’ preferences will be challenging.

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Turkey Urges Banks to Help Rebalance Economy With Credit Pivot

Key Takeaways

  • Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek is urging commercial banks to prioritize growth in corporate loans over consumer loans to rebalance the country’s economy.

  • Simsek is endorsing higher interest rates and a change in loan composition to slow domestic demand and rein in inflation.

  • Simsek’s efforts to implement more orthodox economic policies may be limited by President Erdogan’s focus on winning back Istanbul in the upcoming municipal elections.

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In the Middle East, Thucydides Wins and Woodrow Wilson Loses

Key Takeaways

  • The realist approach to international politics is gaining prominence, with national interest and power taking precedence over values and ideals.

  • The Biden administration is shifting its stance towards Saudi Arabia, recognizing the need for strategic alliances in the face of global power struggles.

  • A potential triangular deal between the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia could bring about peace in the Middle East, counter China’s influence, and potentially deter Iran from causing trouble.

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‘Poor Man’s Cocaine’ Costing $3 a Pill Threatens to Proliferate

Key Takeaways

  • The production and trafficking of the amphetamine-type drug captagon, primarily linked to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Lebanese militia Hezbollah, is likely to expand into Europe and pose a new threat to the region.

  • The illicit captagon trade is becoming more sophisticated, with traffickers and smugglers targeting new transit and consumption markets.

  • Captagon is being used as a “diplomatic tool” by Assad to secure financial support and sanctions relief, highlighting its role in political dynamics in the Middle East.

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