Jakk Consultancy

August Second Week Middle East Finance Newsletter

US, UK Sanction Lebanese Central Banker Days After He Leaves Job, Dubai-Based Shuaa Capital’s Top Investors Are Exploring Sale,

US, UK Sanction Lebanese Central Banker Days After He Leaves Job

Key Takeaways

  • Former Lebanese central bank Governor Riad Salameh has been hit with sanctions by the US and UK for allegedly using his position to enrich himself and associates through money laundering and investing in European real estate.

  • Salameh’s tenure as governor played a significant role in Lebanon’s financial crisis, with the banking sector facing massive losses, currency devaluation, and the country defaulting on its debt.

  • The investigation against Salameh, led by France, Germany, and Luxembourg, highlights the ongoing efforts to hold individuals accountable for the embezzlement of public funds and money laundering in Lebanon

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Rajeev Misra’s OneIM Fund Is Hiring After Raising $6.8 Billion

Key Takeaways

  • One Investment Management, backed by SoftBank’s Rajeev Misra, has secured $6.8 billion in funding and plans to hire additional staff in New York, London, and Abu Dhabi.

  • The fund, supported by Abu Dhabi’s Royal Group and Mubadala Investment Co., will focus on investing in European and US companies.

  • Despite previous controversial investments, Misra’s success in retaining Middle Eastern investor support showcases his ability to continue raising funds for his new venture.

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Top UAE Grocer Lulu to Raise $2.7 Billion Ahead of Possible IPO

Key Takeaways

  • Lulu Group International is raising $2.72 billion to refinance debt ahead of a potential IPO, signaling its plans to realign its capital structure and expand its footprint.

  • The conglomerate is working with Moelis & Co. on the IPO plans, aiming to enhance supply chain networks, e-commerce capabilities, and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

  • With a valuation of over $5 billion in 2020, Lulu operates shopping malls, hospitality, shipping, and real estate businesses across 23 countries, generating an annual revenue of approximately $8 billion and employing over 65,000 people.

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Dubai-Based Shuaa Capital’s Top Investors Are Exploring Sale

Key Takeaways

  • Record crude demand and increasing refining margins are driving up oil prices and premiums for cargoes, indicating a strong start to the latest cycle.

  • Asian buyers, particularly China, are snapping up supplies from the Middle East and the US, contributing to the tightness in the market.

  • Production cuts by OPEC+ and disruptions in major producing nations are further tightening oil market balances, while the upcoming fall turnaround season in the US may reduce enthusiasm in the coming months.

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Saudi Oil Flows to China Set to Soar Despite Global Supply Curbs

Key Takeaways

  • China is set to increase its crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about 40% next month, driven by a new supply contract with a major Chinese refiner.

  • Chinese refiners are expected to receive around 52 million barrels of oil cargoes in September, up from 37 million barrels this month, as they plan to increase processing rates to a record high.

  • Despite global supply cuts, Saudi Aramco continues to allocate full contractual volumes to its Asian buyers, including China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.

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Moody’s May Upgrade Turkey If Market-Friendly Policies Last

Key Takeaways

  • Moody’s may upgrade Turkey’s credit rating if the country continues to implement orthodox policies and address economic imbalances.

  • The appointment of former Wall Street bankers as finance minister and central bank governor reflects Turkey’s efforts to restore credibility and stability in its financial markets.

  • Political considerations and the upcoming local elections pose a risk to the sustainability of market-friendly policies and could lead to a policy shift in the future.

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Egypt’s Inflation Hits New Record as Pound Devaluation Looms

Key Takeaways

  • Egypt’s inflation has reached a new record high, driven by a surge in food costs, exacerbating the country’s foreign-currency crunch.

  • Despite a favorable base effect, inflationary pressures are proving to be stickier than anticipated, and headline CPI may not peak until later in the third quarter.

  • The unexpected decision by Egypt’s central bank to raise interest rates by 100 basis points reflects concerns about rising consumer prices and aims to curb inflation before it begins a disinflation path.

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US and UK Warn Ships of Increased Threat Near Iran’s Waters

Key Takeaways

  • The traditional definition of “oil demand” no longer accurately reflects the changing composition of the energy industry, as biofuels and natural gas liquids now account for a significant portion of the feedstock for oil processors.

  • OPEC’s output cuts may seem bearish, but they make more sense when considering that the increase in refinery output primarily comes from biofuels and NGLs, while supply of crude oil remains below pre-pandemic levels.

  • The path for crude oil to surpass previous peak levels may be narrower than expected, as increased usage of biofuels and NGLs, along with potential shifts in demand and production, could limit the recovery of crude oil demand.

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